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Recession!

Gary North
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This was my Tip of the Week for February 11, 2006. To subscribe to this free service, the subscription box is here: www.garynorth.com.

You had better pay attention to the yield curve in the next few weeks. It is getting very close to inverting.

Why should you care? Because this is by far the most accurate predictor of a recession. I used it in 1989 and again in 2000 to predict a recession the following year. I was correct in both cases.

I have set up a free page where you can monitor this statistic daily:

www.garynorth.com/public/department81.cfm

The yield curve is normally positive: short-term (90- day) T-bill rates are lower than long-term T-bond (30-year) rates. Why? Because there is an inflation premium tacked onto long-term rates by creditors: a hedge against currency depreciation.

When short-term rates are higher, this means that businessmen are scrambling to borrow short-term money to finish projects. It also means that long-term creditors are trying to lock in higher rates today, in preparation for a recession, when all rates fall.

If you are in the stock market, your wealth is at risk the day the yield curve inverts. Monitor this curve. ________________________________________________________________

To see all of my Tip of the Week columns, click here:

http://www.garynorth.com/public/department54.cfm
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