Chart: Chance of a U.S. Recession in 2008
May 10, 2008
As of May 10, the international betting site, Intrade, rates the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. in 2008 at less than 30%.
As recently as three weeks ago, it was over 70%.
When the odds go this low for an event taking place, the event is unlikely to happen. Anyway, I hope so. Their chart on war with Iran is down to 21%.
Offsetting factor: these are mostly European betters. U.S. law restricts Americans' participation.
Here is the chart.