May 10, 2008

As of May 10, the international betting site, Intrade, rates the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. in 2008 at less than 30%.

As recently as three weeks ago, it was over 70%.

When the odds go this low for an event taking place, the event is unlikely to happen. Anyway, I hope so. Their chart on war with Iran is down to 21%.

Offsetting factor: these are mostly European betters. U.S. law restricts Americans' participation.

Here is the chart.