The Middle East is like a live volcano. We can hear the rumblings and feel the tremors. Think three words: oil, terrorism, encirclement.

What do you think would happen to the price of oil within a week of a pre-emptive strike by the United States on Iran? To the price of gold? To the dollar?

What would be the response of Shi'ites in Iraq, who control the government and have the best-armed militias? What kind of response should we expect against our troops?

What would happen to the flow of low-tech weapons across the borders of Iraq and Afghanistan from Iran?

What would happen to American politics if President Bush orders a pre-emptive strike in an election year?

What would happen to the U.S. stock market?

If the Israeli Air Force were to serve as a surrogate, Iranian officials have said that they would regard the attack as if it were from the United States.

You had better start thinking about these questions. You had also better start thinking about where your money is invested.

Here, you can monitor the build-up of American forces in the Gulf. You can monitor rumors of war.

There is also a website devoted to tracking the build-up for this war. For details, click here.