From Gary North: I believe the bull market in gold and silver is over for now. I posted this article on March 19, 2008:

There are reasons to own gold and silver coins, but today, hedging against inflation is not one of them. There is no inflation as of March. This will reduce demand for commodities.

There is another crucial factor: above $900, India quit buying gold. When Indians stop buying gold, it is wise to stop buying unless you have no gold coins at all. I think there is a ceiling at about $900. New demand must push it higher. New demand from whom?

You should own some American tenth-ounce gold coins for disaster-hedging. But unless you are willing to buy and hold for the long term, which could be years, gold and silver are high-risk speculations today.

I think I was the first gold bug to sound the alarm. I ran an article on how to short gold on March 17, the day gold went over $1,029, briefly. I faced facts: the Federal Reserve has been deflating.

On March 18, I ran an article on the break downward in the base metals. I said gold would be next. I began writing my March 19 article that evening.

On March 19, a major move downward began. My article was (sadly) a day late. It was posted automatically at 12:01 a.m.

In the long run, gold will win out. In the mid-term, it is facing recession and possibly even deflation. Gold and silver do not do well under such a scenario.

Some think the metals market is merely in a correction, not a bear market. I could be wrong. Markets fool people. My view is that we are in truly uncharted waters today. Safety is at a premium. If it is a correction, buy in later. If it is a bear market, buy in much later. You can use hedging techniques to protect your existing position. For details, click here.

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