Intrade Was Off by Only Florida
Nov. 12, 2012
I wrote an article on Intrade's estimates on the morning of November 6. You can read it here.
Let's look at the Elecroal College map. Votes: Obama, 303; Romney 235.
So, Intrade was not perfect. But it was wrong only about a state that was so close that it took five days to count the votes. The margin of victory in Florida was 64,000 votes.
This pretty well buries traditional polling. It's over, folks.
One news report says that Romney was shell-shocked on the evening of the election.
Why? Because of the polls.
They thought intensity and enthusiasm were on their side this time - poll after poll showed Republicans were more motivated to vote than Democrats - and that would translate into votes for Romney.As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed - they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn't reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night.
Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy: their internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks.
Those assessments were wrong.
He was ignoring the obvious. Intrade said he was going to lose on the morning of the election. It had been saying this for a week.
Intrade is gong to affect turnout in the future. Voters don't want to support a loser. Voting takes time. "Why waste it voting on a sure loser?" When voters figure out that the polls are wrong, that "their man" will lose, they will stay home.
He will then lose.
The "game" of national politics is going to change.
So, those of us who go to vote against all bond issues will still show up. Those of us who refuse to vote for the lesser evil will not vote for a lesser evil. But that will make no difference.
Intrade will make the difference.