How a Republican Can Be Elected President in 2016: Run Against ObamaCare
Reality Check
I offer this advice to any Republican senator or governor who wishes to be elected president of the United States in 2016. Run on a single issue: the repeal of ObamaCare.
The reason for this can be found in a recent article on ObamaCare by Laurence Vance. Here are the facts.
The most egregious part of Obamacare is the individual mandate that every American not covered by Medicaid, Medicare, or health insurance must purchase health insurance or pay a penalty known as an "individual shared responsibility fee." For 2014 the penalty is the greater of $95 per adult and $47.50 per child (up to a maximum of $285 per family) or 1 percent of taxable income. For 2015 it is the greater of $325 per adult and $162.50 per child (up to a maximum of $975 per family) or 2 percent of taxable income. For 2016 it is the greater of $695 per adult and $347.50 per child (up to a maximum of $2,085 per family) or 2.5 percent of taxable income.
In other words, assuming that Obama enforces the law as written, which is a very large assumption, this is going to mean an enormous tax placed on the budgets of independent voters. These voters will constitute the largest single-issue swing vote in 2016. They will be ready to support any candidate who absolutely, categorically guarantees that he will sign a piece of legislation that abolishes ObamaCare. "I will get this monstrosity out of your lives and out of your wallets."
JOHNNY ONE-NOTE
No matter what the media's agents ask the candidate, he returns to this theme. He comes back every time to the same issue: "I will sign any piece of legislation that is sent to me in 2017 or thereafter that abolishes ObamaCare." The media will grow desperate. They will try to corner him on anything else that will lose him votes. His answer doesn't change: he says that he will sign a piece of legislation that abolishes ObamaCare.
They will ask him about taxes. Answer: "The first tax to cut is Obamacare's tax for not buying health insurance." What about abortion? "ObamaCare requires companies to fund abortion. This must be stopped." They will ask him about foreign policy. "We cannot have a successful foreign policy if unemployment is rising and small businesses are going bankrupt because of ObamaCare." They will ask him about every issue under the sun. He will point to ObamaCare as the place to begin reforming the national political system. He will then say something to the effect that Congress probably will not pass any kind of legislation like that, which is true, so it's a moot point. Then he gets back on target: "I will sign any piece of legislation that comes across my desk that abolishes ObamaCare."
Swing voters are usually motivated by a single issue. This issue is to get the government out of their lives in a particular area. There are people who want this or that subsidy. But the politicians are all over the landscape in promising this kind of subsidy. The voters don't know who to vote for. They do not vote as a bloc. What we do not have, ever, is a Presidential candidate who campaigns on one issue, namely, to repeal a specific piece of hated legislation.
The people who hate this piece of legislation will go to the polls in November 2016 to vote for their candidate. They will define "their candidate" as that candidate who publicly promises to repeal this hated piece of legislation.
More than any piece of legislation today, this piece of legislation is likely to draw people to the polls more than any other issue. There are people who get benefits, but the kinds of people who get ObamaCare's benefits are the kinds of people who do not vote. They are in the lower classes, and lower-class people don't vote. They stay away from the polls. They don't care. The kinds of people who do vote are the people who hate a particular piece of legislation. They do not have the opportunity to vote for anybody who places his entire reputation, his entire campaign, on getting rid of this single piece of legislation. We never have that opportunity. Nobody ever has the guts to run on such a campaign.
There will be two years for the hatred of this law to escalate. This hatred is going to hit people in their pocketbooks. They will hate it in principle, because they hate its effects on their lives. They will have to re-structure their budgets specifically to deal with this tax. The candidate will call it a tax. This is what the Supreme Court of the United States called it. This is what Chief Justice Roberts called it. He said it is a tax, and he said it is Constitutionally justified as a tax. So, the candidate will call it a tax. He will campaign against this specific tax, which is the one tax that we know is going to go up over the next two years. It is the tax that is going to hit swing voters, meaning middle-class voters, meaning upper-middle-class voters, who will bear the brunt of this tax. They are going to be hopping mad, and they are going to go out and campaign for anybody who promises to repeal ObamaCare.
HATE OVER HOPE
Politics is based on hate more than hope. Politics is based mainly on getting even. Politics is based on inflicting pain on the people who have inflicted pain on you. Politics is about negative sanctions.
The public's faith in the federal government is declining. Obama has pretty much sapped the word "hope" of any political meaning. Nobody is going to be able to win in 2016 solely on the basis of unspecified hope. Someone will be able to campaign on the basis of a highly specific hope, namely, hope for repealing a hated law. Nobody is going to be able be elected merely with promises of more goodies, if that person is running against somebody who is mobilizing the swing voters by means of a specific promise: getting rid of the most hated piece of legislation of the 21st century.
The Republican Party in Congress is going to fall over itself to campaign in favor of multiple but unspecified alternatives to ObamaCare. It has already begun. This weakens its appeal to those voters who hate ObamaCare, and who will vote for anybody who promises to repeal it.
The answer to the question from the media about what the candidate plans to do to replace ObamaCare has to be specific: "I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. But I am not going to vote for any new health care legislation until ObamaCare is 100% gone."
This will drive the media crazy. Their goal is always to undermine the conservative candidate by pushing him into a corner in which swing voters who fear the loss of goodies will come out to vote for his opponent. So, candidates are mealy-mouthed about what they are going to repeal.
THE USP
This will enable an anti-Obamacare candidate to gain what is called in marketing a unique selling proposition. This is also called the USP. He gets this USP in front of the public, and he never allows anything to interfere with it. He will be the only Presidential candidate who is campaigning on one issue, and one issue only: the repeal of ObamaCare. He is telling the public this: "If you want to get rid of Obama care, come vote for me. Don't worry about the rest of it."
He must mobilize the opposition. He must get swing voters to the polls to vote for him, because he is the only candidate who is basing his whole appeal on one promise, namely, to repeal the most hated piece of legislation of the 21st century. They will come out to vote for him. Conservatives will vote for him. Liberals who hate ObamaCare will vote for him. They will impose pain on the Democratic Party, specifically because the Democratic Party imposed pain on them.
The man who wants to win the Presidency had better be wise enough to see that he must mobilize the haters, and the haters have to see that this man will not waffle on the issue. A politician who campaigns on one issue, and gets a Congress elected that will send this piece of legislation to him, will have to sign it if he expects to be re-elected. The candidate says this repeatedly every time he speaks. He reminds the voters that they hold the hammer against him if he fails to deliver.
When pressed on issues other than Obamacare, he says this: "We have heard endless promises from Presidential candidates for a hundred years about dozens of programs they will either start or kill. It rarely happens after they are elected. But they do not get tossed out the next time for not delivering. I am running on one issue. The voters can hold me responsible. They should hold me responsible. I am going to deliver, if Congress gets me an ObamaCare repeal bill to me."
The media will not know how to handle this. It has never had to handle this in the past. Neither has the Republican Party Establishment.
In the race for the nomination in early 2016, the candidate keeps telling the Democrats to register this one time as Republicans. Then he tells them to go in and vote for him for the nomination. He tells the Independents do the same thing. He is upfront about it. He says that they don't have to be Republicans for more than one vote. But, to make certain that he gets nomination, they should register as Republicans immediately, come to the polls and vote for him, and then do whatever they want. No candidate has ever done this in the past. This will drive the Republican Establishment crazy. It will also drive the Democrat Establishment crazy.
Once this candidate gets the Republican nomination for President, this will force the hand of virtually all other Republicans running for Congress to commit themselves to sending the repeal of ObamaCare.
If Hillary Clinton runs, she is going to have to run on her personal reputation for attempting to ram through socialized medicine in 1993. A single-issue candidate can keep coming back to this theme: she will not veto any piece of legislation that repeals ObamaCare. This will force the media to keep asking her if she will veto that piece of legislation. If she says "yes," the Democratic faithful will not come out and vote for her. She will simply be a "me, too" candidate. I don't think there is any possibility that she can say publicly that she will sign a piece of legislation to repeal ObamaCare. She will mumble about revisions. She will waffle. The swing voters don't want to vote for anybody who will waffle on this issue.
CONCLUSION
I don't think anybody is going to do this. I don't think anybody wants to take the risk of being regarded as a single-issue candidate. But I believe the hatred of ObamaCare is so great, that no other single issue has a greater possibility of bringing swing voters to the polls on Republican Party nomination day and then on election day in November 2016.