The Amnesty That Matters Most
I am going to write four words. I want you to memorize them. Every time you read about the debate over amnesty, I want you to think of these four words.
They would make a great bumper sticker.
They would easily fit on Kim Kardashian's $65 million behind: two on one cheek, two on the other.
Here they are: Computer programs get amnesty.
Out there somewhere is some kid. He is a computer whiz. He is working on a program that could easily replace at least 10,000 workers in the United States. Worldwide, it will replace 30,000 workers. It is in beta-testing mode.
He may live in India. He may live in Russia. He may live in Israel. He may live in California. It does not matter where he lives. About 30,000 people are going to switch jobs. Some will switch careers. Some will collect unemployment checks. But the digital coding in on the wall. "You have been weighed in the balance and found wanting."
There is no border patrol to stop the use of this program. There are no customs forms to fill in. There is no green card requirement.
BORDERS AND DIGITS
Borders are invisible lines. They are marked by fences. Sometimes. They are marked by checkpoints. Sometimes.
Digits are invisible electrons. They are protected by law. Sometimes. They are marked by registration codes. Sometimes. They can be stolen. Easily.
Describe the employment effects of open borders. Then describe the employment effects of open source code. Tell me about America's insecure southern border. Then tell me about Linux.
There are about 120 million Mexicans. Most of them will live and die in Mexico. There are 1.3 billion Indians, plus an equal number of Chinese. Most of them will live and die in their own nations.
Assume that about 1% of these people are capable of becoming highly skilled programmers. This is not far-fetched: 20% of 20% of 20% of the respective populations. That would be approximately 1.2 million Mexicans, 13 million Indians, and 13 million Chinese. Now, assume that 10% of them actually do become highly skilled programmers. That is 2.7 million highly skilled programmers.
If not one of them ever leaves home, what do you think their effects will be on employment in the West?
Computer programs get amnesty.
THE STREETS OF LAREDO
Middle-class Americans are in a dither about the border with Mexico. A shoot-out is coming. Obama and Boehner are standing in the middle of the street, guns on their belts.
"I've heard about you, Boehner.""What have you heard, Obama?"
"I've heard you're a 'no more green cards' liar."
"Prove it."
The outcome of the Obama-Boehner showdown will be great entertainment. At least ten million illegal immigrants will hear about it through the various grapevines. Maybe it will be twenty million.
The shoot-out is over five million illegal aliens -- the ones with children who are American citizens by birthright, or who are legally residents.
The legal issue is deferred deportation. It is not citizenship.
How much federal money will it take to identify, locate, arrest, incarcerate, fill out papers, get a conviction in the courts (jammed), and send back to their places of origin five million immigrants, along with their children?
Go ahead. Guess.
You don't know. Neither do I.
Let's get it mentally manageable. What would it take to do this for one family? Do you think $20,000 is reasonable? (It is in fact about $23,000.) At $20,000 each, that would be $100 billion to toss out all of them. This assumes that the feds get a 100% conviction rate.
How long do you think this would take? Think: "delays in court."
Then consider this phrase: "along with their children." Most of these children are U.S. citizens. They were born here. At age 18, the others will simply come home if they want to. They have grown up in the U.S. Do you think they will stay in Mexico? If so, why?
By the time a million of these families are lawfully deported, most of their pre-adult kids will be voting. Most of the kids of the other four million will also be voting. The kids of the "no amnesty contemplated" illegals will also be voting.
You have heard the phrase: "locking the gate after the horses have escaped." Modify it: "locking the gate after the horses have entered."
The battle over amnesty is a battle over a symbol, not amnesty. The vast majority of these immigrants have operational amnesty. They are not going to be sent home. They are home. It would take $100 billion and maybe ten years to prove otherwise in five million cases. This does not count the additional five million or maybe 15 million illegals who are also here, and who also will not be going back, and whose children will vote.
Where would Congress get its hands on a spare $100 billion or so?
They already have deferred deportation. They will die here, with or without Obama's executive order.
The battle is over symbols: the legalization of the illegals' actual status vs. pretending they do not have this status. The debate is over this: whether the government will stop spending resources on token cases of deportation which announce this. "The U.S. government reserves the right to do the impossible: deport all of the illegals."
This is similar to the debate we have over stopping the importation of drugs from Latin America. It is about admitting publicly that the war is over (legalization) vs. pretending that it is not lost (the war on drugs). It is about sending a message -- not to the violators of the law, who are in control and have been for eight decades. It is about sending a message to the voters. The voters want to believe that the U.S. government is in control of the flow of smuggled drugs. On paper, it is. In reality, it isn't. The debate is also over how much money the federal government is willing to spend to maintain the pretense. Nobody is willing for the government to spend anything more than a token amount. The political battle over the war on drugs is symbolic, not substantive.
I prefer a federal budget in surplus: either a reduction of the federal debt or a reduction of taxes. Adding $100 billion in costs is not a move in the right direction.
Now let's consider what is not symbolic.
MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE RANCH. . . .
All over the world, there are programmers programming. All over the world, they are trying to find ways to cut costs for businesses. The easiest way to cut costs is to replace workers with computers. Add a few robots while you're at it.
All over the world, Moore's law is operating. Computer chip density doubles every year. For every $1,000 in computer costs, next year's batch will be twice as powerful. In two years, they will be four times as powerful. In three years, eight times. In ten years, 1,000 times. In 20 years, 1,000,000 times.
In ten years, there will be free Internet services supplied all over the world, supplied by Facebook, Google, and Amazon. They are making plans now.
Below these balloons or solar-powered drones will be seven billion people. Three billion are in Asia. Within 20 years, half of the Asians in villages will own cellphones. Their children will be studying online. A tenth of one percent of these children will become masters of programming.
Tell me about the employment effects of open immigration. I don't mean open immigration from Mexico. I mean open immigration of computer programs.
Do you think you are facing competition in your career from illegal aliens? If so, you're a roofer. Or maybe you do concrete foundation work.
Do you think you are facing competition from legal aliens, i.e., computer programs? You would be wise to.
Computer programs get amnesty.
CONCLUSIONS
There are no immigration restrictions on computer programs. There are no customs barriers. There are no forms to fill out.
The world is going to be transformed by computer programs from now on. This has already happened. The revolution was.
It does not matter whether Boehner is faster on the draw. It does not matter whether Obama is a better shot. What matters is how fast that kid can finish the program that is going to replace you. What matters is how good his marketing is.
What matters -- really, truly matters -- is how fast you are on the draw, and how straight you can shoot. Borders will not protect you.
Computer programs get amnesty.