The odds against Donald Trump being elected President in 2016 are high.
This is not simply a slogan. It is a fact. The betting sites reveal it, day by day.
Paddy Power
This is a done deal.
The polls and debates are great entertainment. They are all about selecting the horse that will come in second.
Meanwhile, Hillary debates Bernie and What's His Name on Saturday nights, when hardly anyone will watch. This is to her advantage. To win, all she needs to do is not make a mistake.
It will be four years of Hillary. The big question is this: Will Bill move back in?
The second question is this: Will they steal more furniture, the way they did in 2001?
This is reality. Prepare now.
A LOOSE CANNON
The Republican insiders will stop at nothing to keep Trump from getting the nomination. Why? Because he is the loosest cannon since William Jennings Bryan in 1896.
He has not only not been vetted, he did not ask to be vetted.
Here is a phrase that is never mentioned: "Donald Trump's handlers." There are none. This is why he is ahead of the pack.
Yes, he is a loose cannon. Here is North's law of political loose cannons: A loose political cannon, statistically speaking, may not be pointed at the public. His supporters sense this.
STRATEGY FOR 2016
Trump should be preparing for the convention to steal the nomination from him.
If he fails to get the nomination, he should quote The Arnold: "I'll be back!"
He should not run a third party campaign. He should not become a spoiler. Teddy Roosevelt did this in 1912, and the party faithful never forgave him.
If Cruz or Rubio gets the nomination, Trump should announce this: "We must stop Hillary Clinton." He should not add: "in 2020."
He must show up at rallies the way Bill Clinton did for Obama in 2008: rarely. He should go through the motions.
Why? Because he will become the frontrunner for 2020.
When Hillary wins, Trump will become the titular head of the Republican Party. The Republican insiders will be seen as the architects of defeat.
For four years, he can go online, build his army of supporters, and snipe at Hillary.
There will be a recession in Hillary's first term. It is likely to last for all four years. She will be the donkey onto which Trump will pin the tail.
Switching metaphors, Trump will become the Chinese water torture: drip, drip, drip for four years.
As long as he does not go bankrupt in the recession, his criticisms of her economic policies will gain traction.
What will the Republican insiders do? Issue a series of press releases: "We, too." They will be seen as echoing Trump.
Tell me, who has better media coverage: Donald Trump or Mitch McConnell.
He has to become a team player from the Republican convention until the election. After that, he becomes the quarterback.
CONCLUSION
Trump is in a position to be elected President. Just not in 2016.
If he is patient, his day will come.
If he identifies himself as a team player, he can let Cruz or Rubio be the sacrificial lamb. Then he will replace the Republican king-makers. "You listened to them. How's that working?"
He can spend four years criticizing President Clinton, issue by issue. There will be lots of issues.
He can put together a team of policy wonks from outside the Washington beltway and the New York City establishment. They can spend their time on monitoring Mrs. Clinton.
He can start a YouTube channel to report on her disasters. There will be plenty.
In 2020, he can revive the slogan that won both houses of Congress for the Republicans in 1946: "Had Enough?"
By 2020, the voters will have had more than enough.
If Trump gets the nomination, then Cruz can adopt this strategy.
I wish Rand Paul could. But he is too far down in the betting sites.
© 2022 GaryNorth.com, Inc., 2005-2021 All Rights Reserved. Reproduction without permission prohibited.