What If the FBI Delays Its Announcement Until January 21?
James Comey holds all the cards.
He can make the decision regarding the correct time to recommend the indictment or non-indictment of Mrs. Clinton. This puts him 100% in charge. Not 50%. Not 75%.
Obama has now gone kissy-face with Clinton. This is seen by a lot of commentators as a guarantee that the Justice Department will not indict her.
Nonsense.
The present occupant of the White House will be gone after Mrs. Clinton is sworn in. At that point, she will officially be in control, but in fact will be utterly helpless to stop Comey.
Could she instruct the Justice Department not to indict her? Yes. Would this help her cause? Not for long.
First, she and the the head of the Justice Department would be seen as acting to obstruct justice. That could get her impeached by the House and then convicted by the Senate.
Second, Clinton could fire Comey. This would have the same effect as Nixon's firing of Archibald Cox as the Special Prosecutor -- the infamous Saturday Night Massacre. It would doom her presidency. The House, if controlled by Republicans, would then vote to impeach her. They would win on a strict party vote. Then it would go to the Senate for trial.
Wouldn't that be an entertainment delight? Think of the Nielsen ratings! Nothing would get done in Washington's political circus for months. The Democrats in the Senate would be trapped. The Republicans would be in high cotton.
Third, her political capital would be at zero. There would be no first-term equivalent of ObamaCare. There would be nothing. The "Clinton revolution" would be put on permanent hold.
Side issue: stock markets around the world would head down. This degree of uncertainty would be fatal for stocks in good economic times. We are not in good economic times.
Fourth, what if the Attorney General tells Mrs. Clinton that she's on her own? She will become Nixon II. She will begin her administration under siege. The siege will not go away. It will continue until she resigns.
Fifth, at some point, she will resign.
This is why the person who is elected V.P. will become President.
Will Bernie take the position in July? No?
How about Biden?
This is the political opportunity of a lifetime.
DELAY
Comey can decide to delay his decision until after the convention but before the election. That means President Trump if Comey recommends indictment.
He can wait until after the election. If she is elected, the timing would be a disaster for her. But Obama might decide to put a lid on it. Let it ride. No indictment. Under the rug.
Then Comey calls a press conference to announce that he believes the evidence against her is strong enough to indict. He says that the Justice Department has decided not to indict. He says he is hereby resigning.
Obama can kiss his reputation goodbye. He would go down in the textbooks as the man who obstructed justice for partisan political reasons.
If the Republicans control the House, they would wait until Clinton took office before impeaching her . . . if she did not resign first.
Her Attorney General could decide not to go ahead with the indictment to suppress the FBI's recommendation. In this case, Obana would not avoid having his reputation destroyed retroactively. The government would grind to a halt: impeachment hearings. The Attorney General would be subpoenaed and put under oath. There would be nowhere to hide.
The whole email morass would come out in the hearings.
Politics is about legitimacy. Above all, it is about legitimacy. Comey can end the legitimacy of President Clinton before she is sworn in. By resigning at his press conference, he can remove all legitimacy from her entire presidency, from January 21, 2017 to January 20, 2021.
Comey is 100% in charge. The rest of the actors on the political stage are spear carriers.
But what if he gives a press conference and announces that the evidence is insufficient to press charges? The mainstream media will cheer. "Free at last! Free at last!"
THE DAY AFTER COMEY'S ANNOUNCEMENT
Then the agent in charge of the investigation announces a press conference. The media will show up. Otherwise, they will get scooped by the YouTube video of the press conference, followed by Drudge's posting. He says that there is no question in his mind that the evidence is so strong that an indictment is warranted. He is accompanied by three investigators, all of whom confirm his assessment.
They could then all announce their resignations to reinforce their claims. But this would not be necessary.
Comey is then seen as Obama's lapdog, if the announcement is before January 20. If it is after January 20, he is seen as Clinton's lapdog. He instantly becomes J. Edgar Pushover. He knows this.
So, Comey is not 100% in charge after all.
Sorry. I lied. Remember, I wasn't under oath. If it's good enough for Hillary, it's good enough for me.
The senior agents who are conducting the investigation are in charge. We don't know their names. My guess is that Clinton and Obama do not know their names. Comey will do whatever they recommend.
So, Comey is the agent of the senior agents in charge of the investigation, which is as it should be. It's an investigation. The investigators should be in charge. He is in control of the timing of the announcement. He is not in control of the substance of the announcement.
If they really do think she is innocent, no problem. If they think she is guilty, her presidency is dead in the water. In advance.
If the FBI investigators think she is guilty, and Comey announces this before the convention, this creates chaos for the establishment. Trump is a shoe-in. Then the Democrats must decide: suicide with Clinton, or go with Bernie, or go to the man in reserve, Joe Biden. I think that would mean President Trump. (It could be anyway, but the betting sites say no.)
After the nomination but before the election? President Trump again.
After the election, if Clinton is elected? It's the end of her presidency. It means eventual resignation: into the helicopter with the V sign. (This would make a great meme.)
Who will be her V.P. candidate? That's the main issue of this summer's political hoopla.
It's not about Clinton any more. It's about (1) a faceless crew of FBI investigators, and (2) Comey's timing.
CONCLUSIONS
I know how I want this to play out. That's because I am most concerned about who gets inaugurated on January 20, 2021. The recession in the next President's term will force the total defeat of the President's party in 2020. It will be 1932 all over again.
What about you? How do you want it to play out?