Political Gridlock: Four More Years
Ohio is considered the bellwether state for presidential elections. Here are some statistics.
The winner of Ohio has won the White House in the last 13 elections . . .-- Ohio has voted for the presidential winner in 28 of the last 30 elections, or 93 percent. New Mexico (which first participated as a state in 1912) is second with 24 of 26, or 92 percent, with Illinois and Nevada third with 24 of 30, or 87 percent.
-- Ohio's percentage deviation from the national presidential vote has been less than 5 percent in 27 of the 30 elections, or 90 percent of the time, with New Mexico a distant second with 20 of 26, or 77 percent.
-- Ohio's electoral votes have been decisive five times, most recently in 2004, when they clinched George W. Bush's re-election in a tight race that current Secretary of State John Kerry would have won with Ohio. No other state has done so more than three times since 1896.
The trend is picking up steam, too, as the state's results have been matching the nation's even more closely in recent elections.
"The state has actually become a better bellwether over time," Kondik said. "If you look at the elections since 1964, the state's never been more of a bellwether than it's been since then."
Trump is ahead of Clinton by five percentage points, 44% to 39%, with the two other parties picking up the rest. This was reported by Bloomberg. But that's not all. The Republican candidate for the Senate, the incumbent Rob Portman, holds a huge lead over his rival, Ted Strickland: 53% to 36%. It is an indication that there is no coattails effect from Hillary. Independents are two-to-one in favor of Portman. But what is significant is this: about 14% of Democrats say they will vote for him.
This is the key fact: ticket-splitting.
A sizable share of Ohio's likely voters seem ready to vote a split ticket, the poll shows, with 20 percent of Clinton's supporters also backing Portman. Just 9 percent of Trump supporters are backing Strickland.
Why is this so important this time? Because this election is about which candidate is hated most. There has never been a presidential election like this before. Neither candidate has the trust of the voters.
People will go to the polls in November to "stop [ ]." This is a deeply personal election. The candidates talk up certain issues, but they are unclear in public about how they will get their agendas legislated. There will be no fervor to elect the candidate in order to ram through the candidate's agenda.
This means that there will be no fervor to elect a Senate or House member of the same political party. The Independents especially are likely to go with the status quo. They are not going to vote the party ticket. This means that the House of Representatives is unlike to go Democrat, even if Hillary wins in a landslide. The Independents are the key swing vote. They will vote for candidates one at a time. This favors incumbents. Why? Name recognition. The incumbent has an email list and a list for physical mailings.
The Senate is still problematical. It could swing back to the Democrats. In a Hillary landslide, it probably will. But it is looking less and less likely that she will win in a landslide, if she wins at all. When she stumbled into that black van, her campaign stumbled with her.
This means that if she is elected, she will face a Republican House. This will produce gridlock. The Republicans in the House will be more willing to vote as a bloc because a Democrat will get the credit for any piece of legislation that gets by both houses of Congress.
If Trump wins, he is likely to get both houses of Congress.
Gridlock slows down legislation, which is usually an advantage for liberty. Trump is the consummate outsider in American political history. He is unlikely to get across-the-board support from Republicans in Congress. The real rulers of the country -- the ones who vet the presidential candidates, fund their campaigns, and vet the candidates for his cabinet -- are anti-Trump. Word will quietly go down to Congress: "Do not cooperate." Trump has no clear agenda. RINOs in Congress will block anything uniquely Trumpian.
The day of reckoning will be in November 2020. That is when the electorate will "throw the rascals out." The recession will be in full force. The President will be blamed for the economy. Congress will be in gridlock. The Federal Reserve will be impotent.
Gridlock will end on January 20, 2021. Be prepared.