Legitimacy and Self-Government
I have been writing about legitimacy for decades. I recently republished an article I wrote on this in 1997.
Liberty flourishes under this environment: self-government under law. Individuals apply the legal principles to their own situations. The general rule is: "Just say no."
When self-government declines in any government -- church, family, or state -- the enforcement arm of the government must devote an increasing quantity of institutional resources to policing. The central government becomes more authoritarian. At some point, if self-government is not restored voluntarily, it is replaced.
To gain voluntary cooperation, the government must be perceived by most participants as legitimate. If the government is seen as illegitimate, people begin to violate the rules at the margin. It may take decades for this to bring down the central government. It took from 1917 to 1991 for the USSR to collapse, but it eventually did.
This brings me to the topic at hand: the Presidential election of 2016. Both candidates are viewed negatively. There has never been a Presidential election that has been conducted on the basis: "The other one is worse." This really is the lesser of two evils. We talk about it, but this time it's the real deal. People are thinking: "How bad will it get if the other one wins?"
It is going to get unimaginably bad economically because of central banking, not party politics. The public will not perceive this.
The next President will be sworn into office under a cloud of suspicion and resentment. There are hard-core supporters of both candidates, but they are outnumbered by the skeptics.
In the case of Trump, he was not vetted by the Republican Establishment. This has never happened before. It is something new. So, the Republican Establishment is in no mood to cooperate. Trump will not get voluntary cooperation from within the party unless he wins in a landslide. But because the Libertarian Party is at last close to double digits, no candidate is likely to get a majority.
This will affect the man in the street in a time of economic crisis. People will look to Washington for guidance. They will not get it.
When this happens, voluntary compliance will erode. People want to believe that the people at the top know what they are doing. When that confidence fades, people will begin to break the law when they think they can get away with this. They will start taking care of themselves first.
We are going to see a growing loss of legitimacy over the next four years. The politics of trust is fading. This is good. People should not place much trust in Washington. The problem is this: "You can't beat something with nothing." The default mode is cooperation. But when this ceases to be true, people will chase after rainbows. I quote the late Jack Miller: "People will call for a man on a white horse. There are a lot of guys out there with brown horses and whitewash."
Things decline slowly for a long time. Then they fall apart very fast.
The United States has been blessed by self-government from the beginning. Americans generally take the attitude: "I'm OK. You're OK." They give the benefit of the doubt. This has led to a constant expansion of the central government, from 1788 until today.
The problem will come when a deeply divided electorate realizes that no one in Washington can solve the problems. That day really will come. It will come in the face of an economy that is bad and getting worse.
If Trump wins, he will be attacked mercilessly by the media for four years. The media will cut him zero slack. There will be an undermining of trust in Washington. The Leftist media will accomplish this. In the long run, this will be suicidal for the Left. They may get their man/woman elected in 2020, but then things will get worse.
The day of decisive decision will be in 2024. When nothing has worked, what then? Who or what will be perceived as legitimate?
We don't know. But we know this: when faith in the center wanes, there is no unity remaining to put the pieces back together.
We are moving toward decentralization. But the transition will not be seamless.
Here is a rule: power flows to those who take responsibility. Between now and 2025, the good guys had better take responsibility locally. Trust in Washington will be betrayed.
There will be a lot of experimentation locally. I hope you will be living in a town where sensible people take over.