Mobilizing the Politics of Revenge
Chris Wallace asked Trump in the third debate whether he will accept a Clinton victory on November 8. He said that he will make that decision at the time.
Pressed on this, he said he would keep us in suspense.
Clearly, he could not become President if the popular vote is against him, and the Electoral College elects Hillary without deviating from the popular vote.
The President must be sworn in. Who would have the authority to do this for Trump? Who would lawfully perform the service?
So, why is he being coy?
One reason: increase the ratings. The media went ballistic. He plays these people like concert violinist. They just can't keep from giving him air time.
Second, if he loses, and he calls his followers to buckle down and take over the Republican Party, he could become the greatest political spoiler in American history. That's because he has enough supporters to take over most of the precincts. Hardly anyone is willing to dig in and do the grunt work at the local level. This is why the party machines control the parties in between Presidential elections.
He is preparing his followers for what he has described as the theft of the Presidency in a rigged election. He is undermining their trust in the system. But this loss of trust in the political system provides an opportunity for him to mobilize his hard core supporters.
If people feel cheated, they can be motivated to seek revenge. He is preparing them to feel cheated.
If people feel cheated, and their leader says they have an opportunity to get even, maybe 20% of them will commit to a program to get even.
Here is the problem he faces. Almost no one is sufficiently interested in politics to dig in and take over a political party. That's why it really could be done. The opposition will not have the same degree of dedication. The opposition will not care enough to get even.
POLITICS AS A CALLING
On January 28, 1919, the great German social scientist Max Weber [Mawx Vayber] gave a speech to college students in Bavaria. This was in the aftermath of the worst defeat in German history: World War I. The German surrender had taken place on November 11, 1918. Germany in January 1919 was in the midst of a socialist revolution. Bavaria was the center of this revolution, literally as Weber was speaking. So, this was not merely an academic speech. It is known as "Politics as a Vocation." Beruf should be translated as "calling," not "vocation." He ended with these words:
Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards. It takes both passion and perspective. Certainly all historical experience confirms the truth -- that man would not have attained the possible unless time and again he had reached out for the impossible. But to do that a man must be a leader, and not only a leader but a hero as well, in a very sober sense of the word. And even those who are neither leaders nor heroes must arm themselves with that steadfastness of heart which can brave even the crumbling of all hopes. This is necessary right now, or else men will not be able to attain even that which is possible today. Only he has the calling for politics who is sure that he shall not crumble when the world from his point of view is too stupid or too base for what he wants to offer. Only he who in the face of all this can say 'In spite of all!' has the calling for politics.
Is this Trump? Is he marked by "steadfastness of heart which can brave even the crumbling of all hopes"? "Only he has the calling for politics who is sure that he shall not crumble when the world from his point of view is too stupid or too base for what he wants to offer."
If he really has politics as a calling, then on the evening of November 8, in the midst of defeat, he will call his followers to hunker down, dig in, and begin four years of "a strong and slow boring of hard boards." But it will take more than four years. The political rubber will meet the road in 2024: the confirmation or rejection of the President elected in 2020. The world in 2020 will be in the midst of a major recession: the popped bubble that Trump has predicted.
We rarely have seen this degree of dedication in any period of time, but surely not in our entertainment-saturated era. This is a politics as a calling, and few people are ever called. Leaders mobilize their troops in election years. In the United States, the troops come out only in Presidential election years. They are caught up in the hoopla, but then, on the day after the election, they go back to their jobs, their daily chores, and cable TV.
If he has a practical program of training ready to be announced on November 8, Trump and his followers can become a formidable threat to the Republican Party Establishment. The Establishment will be in disarray on November 9. The Republican Establishment will be in reaction mode: four years of Hillary. Will the party hold the Senate? It will probably hold the House. If the Senate goes Democrat, this will leave Paul Ryan as the Establishment's spokesman. He has already publicly shot himself in the foot twice over his support or lack of support for Trump.
In this setting, Trump is in a position to undermine the Republican Establishment. If he announces his candidacy for 2020, this will be a spammer in the works. The Establishment will be in pandemonium.
But he has to have a program to mobilize his followers. He has to have what the Tea Party did not have: a practical program of influencing local politics through the precincts.
I don't think he has such a program. But he has an immense mailing list. This can be the tool of training, if he can inspire 20% of his supporters to get active locally.
He has to offer hope. He has to call them to victory: the capture of the Republican Party. This will be a first step. The goal should be victories -- White House, Senate, and House -- in 2020 and 2024. That would constitute a revolution.
I don't think he wants to do this. I don't think he has either the heart or the stomach for this. But the opportunity exists. Nothing like this has happened since the candidacy of William Jennings Bryan. He could not produce a victory. Three strikes and he was out: 1896, 1900, and 1908.
At 70, Trump probably does not have time to see this through, but he has the ability to launch the program on the evening of November 8.
CONCLUSIONS
I don't place any hope in national politics. I think it's a Punch and Judy show. Local politics is where the long-term opportunity exists.
Will anyone mobilize a hard core of local political activists? That is where the political Establishment is vulnerable. The goals of political victory here are clear: cutting the budgets of the local schools, cutting property taxes, and defeating every bond issue. This would not be Punch and Judy politics.
How many of Trump's vocal supporters are ready for a strong and slow boring of hard boards? Talk is cheap. Long-term commitment is costly.
Trump can find out, beginning on the evening of November 8.