President Trump in his press conference yesterday announced new testing facilities. This was good news. But testing only tells you what the problem is. Testing does not solve it. It merely reveals the magnitude of the problem.
What is the magnitude of the problem? More important, what can the healthcare delivery system do about this problem under present circumstances?
Remember: there is no vaccine. Also, there is no guarantee that a vaccine will work. Then there is the problem of administering the shots. Where will the medical community get the surplus nurses and licensed caregivers in the numbers required to vaccinate the entire American population? The public deserves an estimate of the number of available licensed nurses and caregivers in relation to size of various segments of the population in terms of age. Once the vaccine is available, how long will it take to inoculate any particular age group? These nurses will have to be removed from the pool of nurses who are treating dying people.
No one in authority wants to talk about this. Yet the public's optimism is based on the assumption that there will be a vaccine, it will be effective, it will be available to virtually the whole infected population, and there will be people available to administer it. All of this is sheer fantasy at this point.
To get better insight on all this, I hope you will watch this video.
THE INTERVIEW
Joe Rogan is king of the video podcasters. He gets millions of hits.
Here, he interviews a man who has spent years tracking public diseases: Michael Osterholm. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, and the founding director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota. Three years ago this week, his book was published: Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs. One chapter is on what would happen if a killer flu got loose in China. He described what has happened with the coronavirus.
He is calm, cool, and collected. His message is frightening. He thinks that at least half a million Americans will die of this before the coronavirus fades away.
He thinks that hospitals will be overloaded within two months. No one will be able to get a bed, whether a coronavirus victim or not. The USA will be like Italy. (For information on Italy's hospitals, go here.)
Over 16 million people have seen this segment of the interview. It was 11 million three days ago.
KEY TAKEAWAY
Here is the key takeaway. He says that those Americans who take the pandemic seriously expect a blizzard. It will not be a blizzard. It will be a winter -- all summer.
Late this week, Disney closed Disneyland until the end of March. If Osterholm is correct about the duration, Disney should keep it closed all summer. The same goes for Disney World. That will be bad for Disney's revenues -- bad, as in catastrophic.
Las Vegas conventions are being canceled daily. "What comes into Vegas won't stay in Vegas . . . so don't go to Vegas."
Schools may not reopen in late August.
Theaters will be empty all summer.
Restaurants will be empty all summer.
You get the picture.
If your employer depends on walk-in traffic, the company had better have an irrevocable line of credit with its local bank. It will need it.
I know what I will be doing. I will be doing what I do now: spending 8 to 10 hours a day in my basement office, either online or writing onscreen. But I am in a unique situation. You probably aren't.
Think "winter" all summer. Then make adjustments to your normal schedule.
NATIONAL TESTING
President Trump announced yesterday that testing is about to begin. If the government reveals the numbers, we are going to see relentless increases in the number of people infected. These people will be contagious. As these numbers become visible, panic is going to spread. It will be clear that testing is not enough. Then the hospitals are going to fill up.
The Dow went up by 1,000 points as President Trump was delivering the news on testing. I watched the numbers rise as the press conference continued. They were on the TV screen. What investors and algorithms did not factor into this announcement is the reality of the reporting on this pandemic as the results of the tests are released to the public. The numbers are going to get astronomical, if the analysis is correct that you have seen in the video.
Is the government going to release these figures? I hope so. The public deserves to know. If the government does not release these figures, then we will know that the news is very bad.
We have a brief window of optimism available to us. I suggest that you take advantage of it.
WHAT I HAVE DONE
On Thursday, I informed my pastor that I will no longer attend church until the pandemic is over. He replied cordially. The two emails are here. I do not recall missing two consecutive weekly services on over 50 years. This is a major change in my behavior. Last night, the pastor sent out a message to members informing them of what the church will be doing in response to the COVID-19, which includes canceling Sunday schools. I recommend that other pastors take actions along these lines. His message is here.
I have decided not to take my grandsons to lunch on Saturdays. So did their father, who sent me a link to this video.
I canceled my speech at Peter Fortunato's conference in late March. The next day, he canceled the conference.
I had considered canceling my speech next Saturday at the Mises Institute, but the Institute canceled the conference before I had to.
My wife and I will not be flying to California to see our new grandson. She canceled the flights.
Yesterday, I went to my oncologist's office and switched the date for my quarterly visit from late April to March 16. I was amazed that there was a slot open. I went in for my blood test a month early. If I have to go back on the anti-testosterone hormone therapy, I will ask for whichever product will take care of me the longest -- not the monthly shots that I had for two years. I don't want to be inside a hospital this summer for any reason.
LATEST SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT
On March 10, a conference on the coronavirus was held at the University of California, San Francisco, the medical center of the University of California system. I was sent a summary. I regard this summary of the pandemic as reliable, although I have not verified its authenticity. I do not think it is a hoax. Note: the unofficial estimate regarding deaths is worse than Osterholm's. I strongly recommend that you read it. I have posted it here.
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