Nothing Fails Like Success; or, Why Subscribers Cancel When the Advice Was Correct
Jan. 21, 2008
One of the oddest things is how many cancellations I get when I call a market move and the market moves as I said it would.
I think I know why: most people who read what to do usually do not do it. Paralysis rules. When the market keeps going as I said it would, the pain grows more intense. "I knew! I knew! He told me!" Day by day, a few subscribers cancel.
My hope is that, after they have lost 50% of their money that they had on the day they canceled, they will understand: "If I had just done what he said on the day I canceled, instead of canceling, I would be way ahead."
That will not get their money back, but it will give them a way to begin getting their money back. Problem: When you lose half your money, you must make 100% after taxes just to break even. That could take a decade.
A few will re-subscribe. But most will not. The shell shock of missing the profits that my advice provided will forever keep them from re-subscribing.
A shame, really. But it's human nature.
But, who knows? Maybe my advice will turn out to be worse than everyone else's. You never know. But when the experts in March, 2000, said "Buy a no-load index fund of the S&P 500 and hold," and consumer prices had risen by over 20% in 2008, while the S&P 500 had fallen by 15%, the experts don't seem to be on top of things, do they?