Pray Against War in Iran. Events Just Escalated One Step.
October 17, 2008
The Iranian air force has just conducted a simulated run that demonstrates the planes' ability to reach Israel and return.
This was reported on a pro-Israel Website.
Without nuclear weapons or biological weapons, this ability is meaningless from a military standpoint -- only symbolic. But symbols matter.
Saber-rattling on both sides points to a game of "chicken." The world economy will lose this game.
The public has no say in such matters. If war comes, it will be by a surprise attack from the air.
The stakes are so high, and the economic fallout so widespread, that there is no hedge against it, other than gold and shorting stocks. Oil is central to the world's economy. Sunk tankers in the Hormuz Strait would dramatically reduce the supply of oil from the Persian Gulf. Small changes in demand or supply at the margin create wild price swings. Any interruption of oil flow out of the Middle East would send oil far above $300 a barrel. This, in the midst of a recession.
The United States would soon be in a three-front war, even if the United States does not launch the attack on Iran's suspected nuclear facilities. Iran has said that any attack by Israel would be regarded as an attack by the United States. The most effective way for Iran to respond is to supply weapons to resistance groups. The guerrilla war would expand in Iraq and Afghanistan. I Iraq, Muktada al Sadr's Mahdi Army is the obvious choice to expand the war.
The big winner would be Russia, which sells oil to Europe. Russia uses pipelines, not tankers. We can be sure that Russia will sell weapons to Iran.
A daily prayer against an attack is called for. The consequences of another military front are dire. The consequences of sunk oil tankers in the Hormuz Strait are dire.