https://www.garynorth.com/public/5504print.cfm

Reality Check Q&A, #6

Gary North

Sept. 29, 2009

SAFE PLACE

Age: 53
Location: West of Boston, MA
Occupation: small business owner, professional services, 5 employees
Retirement date: never
#1 goal in life: Live a full life
Deadline date: unknown

A lot of people I know are preparing for TEOTWAWKI (The End of the World as We Know It) and setting up "gulches" (after Galt's Gulch.) They envision riding out the coming hard times in these rural redoubts.

I'm not so sure. I enjoy the benefits of the division of labor and a complex economy. I suspect there will be considerable economic activity even as the US government attempts to control ever-expanding segments of the economy.

My questions: What role do you see for gulches? How should those who have prepared plan to earn a living in the hard times that are already upon us?

First, you have a major problem. You have no specific goal in life. You are like a man who is asked, "How much money do you want in life?" who answers "more."

Without a specific lifetime goal, you have no way of knowing whether you are on target to attain it.

The super rich have safe places to flee to, should this be necessary. They have lots of land in beautiful places. These are lifestyle places, but they are batten-down-the-hatches places, too.

You should locate a safe small town in New Hampshire or in western Massachusetts. Buy a few acres outside of town. Make sure it has a water well. Begin stocking it. Put in a used double-wide mobile home. Let a young couple or old couple live in it for free. They look after the property. They see that it is safe.

Visit the property on the weekends. Make local friends.

OLD AGE

What should my wife and I (both 72 years old) do with our savings and checking accounts NOW?

You had better have a lot of money. You will not be able to live on your investments. It's a question of living longer than your money. Half gold coins, half FDIC-insured accounts. Pray.

Then go back to work.

CAREER

Age: 27
Location: Atlanta
Occupation: Financial Analyst, hotel management corp
Retirement date: Never
#1 goal in life - Own & operate a 80% self-sustaining family farm, contracting with area farmer's markets. Be close to family and children on a daily basis.
Deadline: 15 years

Should I move with my Brazilian wife to her country in the next 2 years?

Do you want to live in Brazil? If so, yes. If not, never.

Do you plan to be a farmer in Brazil? If so, move. If not, never.

Do you know anyone who runs a farm as you describe? If so, find out how he does it. If not, find out how to do it. Almost no one can. This has been increasingly true since about 1800.

You do not indicate how you will move to a new lifestyle and new career from an urban, highly specialized occupation to a career that almost no one has been able to do profitably since 1920.

Is there a burning fire in your belly to do this? If so, do it now, while you are still young. If not, it's a pipe dream. Scrap it and find a dream that is doable.

DEFLATION OR INFLATION

Regarding deflation versus Inflation,your position seems to be Inflation,but others favor Deflation, It appears to me that Deflation is what is happening and being made worse by deficit spending and money printing. Who's right?

I am.

CAREER

Age: 38
Location: Atlanta
Occupation: engineering management
Retirement date: No retirement
#1 goal in life: A good life for my family
Deadline date: ?

Dr North, my job, industry, etc is on the slow drip phase. I'm working on online ventures per your suggestions but will need a new job when/before this one ends. What should I look for in a company at this moment?

My concern is that I don't want to hire in and be fired and I want to devote energy to pursuing the best options.

Your lifetime goal is too vague. Get focused. You need a plan.

Look for a company that has a need to hire someone with your skills. Why would anyone want to hire you? Get this down on paper. When you have a list, look for a middle-sized firm that was in growth mode before 2007 and that has not shrunk.

Get into a firm that is committed to growth. Don't associate with time-servers. They will not survive.

When you find that firm, find out what market it serves. Become an expert in that market. Your application form should provide evidence that you have mastered this market.

Start a blog in this area. Develop a public persona as an expert. Spend at least two hours a day on developing this expertise.

You must provide a compelling answer yo the question: "Why should we hire this guy?"

RETIREMENT

I am 78 yrs old; Own my home in Sacramento; retired in 1990. I live off SS and pension of a little over $1000 each. Have about $175k in investment account. I expect to live 15 to 20 more yrs.

I accumulated about $70k in a bank and savings and loan mainly from expired gov't bonds. Gvt bonds pay nothing, don't trust the banks, have little faith that ss and pension will continue for another 15 years. What the hell do I do with the money sitting in the banks?

You have to cut expenses. You cannot live for 15 to 20 years on the small amount of money you possess. The pension and Social Security could easily get eaten up by inflation between now and your death.

You cannot afford the home. Sell it. Rent a used mobile home in a mobile home park. Or buy a used double wide and rent space.

If you will not sell the home, then rent it to someone. You should get more for it than it costs you to live in a mobile home park.

Divide the house money and the $175k between FDIC-insured bank accounts and gold coins.

Put the $70k into gold coins. That will protect you from serious inflation. That small amount of money won't do much else of value for you.

Inflation is your #1 threat.

If you lived in the Midwest, you could use your money to buy several houses. Live off the rental income. That would be a good strategy.

INVESTING

Age: 60
Location: Santa Monica, CA
Occupation: retired due to disability
Retirement date: 2006
#1 goal in life: Provide for my three children ages 10, and twins 1 1/2
Deadline date: 2009

I have monthly pension income of $5000. Assets $730,000 ($400,000 annuities, $200,000 bonds, $60,000 cash and $70,000 silver). My wife works part time and I am unable to work due to serious heart problems. My sister watches my children when my wife works because of my health. We have a 2 bed/2 bath rent-controlled apartment with a low rent of $1100 and we do not own a home.

How can I maintain the value of my assets and income to provide for my 3 children aged 10, and twins 18 months?

You must move to a region of the country where you can buy investment houses and live off the income. You must get out of California. Ft. Worth would be good. A university town like Lawrence, Kansas would work.

In California, you will grow poor. You cannot hedge. You must gain a stream of passive income. Rental property in a region where you can get cash flow is the best shot you have.

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