Consumer Price Changes as of April 2010
May 21, 2010
This table appears on the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. I reproduce it here because it tracks the Cleveland FED's Median CPI, which I regard as more accurate than the CPI. It is less volatile.
The important fact is the trend. The assumptions of how to sample and what importance to assign to sectors stay fairly constant. The rate of change month to month is less important than the direction of the change: up or down. Most important for tracking either price inflation or price deflation is the presence or absence of acceleration of the rate of change. Mass inflation (20% to 30% per annum) or hyperinflation (above 30%) can occur only if the rate of change is accelerating.
The rate of change is decelerating. Look at the rate of change in the bottom line: Median CPI, previous 12 months. This was 1.2% per annum in November and December 2009. It was down to 1% in January. It was at 0.5% in April.
