On Not Becoming a Refugee
Aug. 30, 2010
People sometimes face a crisis so great that they decide to become refugees rather than sit tight.
I am not convinced that what most urban people are likely to face will require this. I am hopeful that there will not be a series of really devastating attacks on urban centers by suicide squads using biological weapons. I think that is the biggest threat in terms of impact, but a long-shot in terms of likelihood.
A change of lifestyle is one thing; becoming a refugee is another. People who retire must change their lifestyles. This takes planning. But becoming a refugee is something different. I recommend the former.
A refugee gives up most of what he owns. Most of all, he gives up his lifestyle -- completely.
Under what circumstances would you become a refugee?
Most people could make a short list, but they would not stick to it.
In modern times, war and revolution force this. The main exception was Hitler's Germany. A Jew could have left in 1933. Hardly any Jew did. Yet any Jew who did not read Hitler's Mein Kampf in 1933 was living in a fantasy world. Radio let people hear his speeches. Why would any Jew have remained in the country after the Reichstag fire and the new emergency laws? But they did.
Four words killed them: "It won't happen here." To say "it can't happen here" was foolish. Of course it could. But they concluded that it wouldn't. It did.
Ludwig von Mises left Austria in 1934. He warned other Jews to leave. Fritz Machlup did. He came to America before Mises did. Mises looked at as map. He could see what could happen: an invasion by the Austrian. He concluded "it might happen here," and that was enough to drive him out. He left his library behind in his apartment. He kept paying rent on it, just in case he could return from Switzerland. But he was right. In 1938, the Austrian and his German forces marched in.
He was not a refugee in Switzerland. But when the war broke out, he was not sure he would be allowed to stay. Just after France fell, he decided to make a run for it. He crossed into France to get to Spain. He and his wife made it in a bus -- a bus whose driver had to change routes continually to avoid the Germans. They went to Portugal, and from there to New York City, to start over. He was 60 years old.
Ernst Winter, Sr., the Vice Mayor of Vienna, was a marked man. He had fought politically against the Austrian Nazis. So, he had a getaway plan. The day the army marched in -- a Friday -- he walked across the border into Germany. He hid there. He concluded that no one would look for him there. Eventually, he made it to America. So did Ernst, Jr., who later married a von Trapp sister. The father waited until the last minute, but he had a plan to get out. He got out.
The German authorities showed up at his front door on Monday, just as he told Ernst, Jr. they would. "No bureaucrat works on the weekend." The son by then had burned all their papers. "They will arrest you. At 15, you are too young. They will release you in a few days." They did.
The father had figured out to beat the system. He got out when he had to. How many people think through anything with this degree of precision? Hardly anyone.
We have time to make plans. I have three stories about men who made plans.
Hans Sennholz told me this story. He dated a young woman whose father had taught philosophy in a gymnasium (high school) in the city of Essen. As soon as Hitler came into power in 1933, he applied for a transfer. He also switched to mathematics -- not controversial. Within a couple of years, he got a teaching job far away in a rural district. He bought a small farm. He raised goats and taught math. The war never got there. He had food to eat. After the partition, he found himself on the West German side of the border -- just barely. Meanwhile, Essen became a primary bombing target -- its Krupp factory -- for three years, a target so significant that a Wiki page is devoted to the bombings.
In August of 1862, Major Henry Holliday got dysentery. He was discharged from the Confederate Army. A month later, his unit went to Antietam. Of the ten officers, four were killed, five taken captive, and one was stunned by an explosion. A year later, one month after the fall of Vicksburg and Lee's loss at Gettysburg, he sold his plantation, which was located south of Atlanta. He moved far south to Valdosta. He bought 3500 acres -- five square miles. Why did he move? Because he could read a map. He could see that the Union would take Chattanooga and move south to Atlanta. He got as far away as he could. The war never came to Valdosta.
His son John graduated from dental school in 1872 and then decided to move out West. He needed a drier climate. He had contacted tuberculosis -- a bad disease for a dentist. He became a gambler. He, too, had a plan. He died in 1887.
Few people see what's coming. Of those who do, few take action.
I think millions of people will be forced to change their lifestyles as a result of economic disruptions. Retirees are especially vulnerable. It is better to change your lifestyle early than later. Avoid the rush.
People stay on a job for the sake of a pension. That is a mistake. Others assume that their jobs will be safe, no matter what happens to the dollar. That is also unsafe.
Better to make a lifestyle change on your terms over time than on others' terms overnight.