Reality Check continued

Gold will rise because the dollar will fall. The tight-money policies of 2005 will produce a recession. When that happens, the Federal Reserve will abandon tight money. Gold will then enter another boom phase.... keep reading

Present-orientation is the mark of the lower-class person. Americans are fast becoming lower class. The result will be the reduction in our standard of living.... keep reading

The recession of 2001 showed investors once again that the good times can cease to roll. It's going to happen again. Worse.... keep reading

What goes up must come down. What is pumped up by investors will get deflated by investors. At that point, they will call on the government to restore the old price/earnings ratio. The government will respond by inflating.... keep reading

The word "supermoney" comes from the title of a 1968 book by "Adam Smith." The book touted -- the correct word -- the idea of getting rich through issuing stock and retaining millions of shares for yourself. That strategy blew up in 2000. It has not worked since.... keep reading

Moore's 1965 "law" states that computer chip capacity doubles every 18 months. He was wrong. The doubling period is now down to 12 months. The economic gains from this are marginal, year by year, though significant over decades. Meanwhile, the depreciation rate is incredibly high: a constant drain on profits.... keep reading

This is an endless debate. At least we are debating about 3% inflation in 2005, and not 14%, as in 1979.... keep reading

Many eyes, many versions. This is why historians never agree on anything they have studied in detail.... keep reading

The "Great Game" has been played in Afghanistan for over 150 years. The British and the Russians lost men and money trying to control Afghanistan. Now it's our turn.... keep reading

The National Bureau of Economic Research is always looking over its shoulder. It is the non-profit organization that officially announces American recessions.... keep reading

Vice President Cheney warned in late 2001 that Afghanistan was only the first in a series of wars against terrorism. He was not whistling Dixie. It was more like "Matching Through Georgia."... keep reading

Two centuries ago, I would have died a horrible death. We should appreciate the blessings of modern technology.... keep reading

What is clear to everyone today seemed obvious to me in 2001: "No Exit." One of Rumsfeld's laws is this: "Things are easier to get into than out of." He proved it in Afghanistan.... keep reading

In 2001, I argued that the war in Afghanistan was one more example of bait-and-switch. The war was not going to end in Afghanistan. America was about to enter into the West's "Great Game" in the region, which Britain and the USSR had lost.... keep reading

The escalation of the American war on terrorism in 2001 has created a predictable counter-response. The terrorists are multiplying. Our troops are not. The winner of a guerrilla war is the side that does not leave the battlefield.... keep reading

Step by step, crisis by crisis, decade by decade, the U.S. government has pursued the national ID card. Yet a national ID card program is useless against the most cost-effective of all weapons of mass destruction: an anthrax attack on a major city.... keep reading